Sprawl effect from San Jose planning scenarios

San Jose has the following scenarios in its proposed General Plan for future growth:

Scenario K – 339,530 new jobs and 158,970 new dwelling units (1.0 J/ER) (Jobs:Employed Resident ratio)

Scenario E – 360,550 new jobs and 135,650 new dwelling units (1.1 J/ER)

Scenario C – 346,550 new jobs and 88,650 new dwelling units (1.2 J/ER)

Scenario J – 526,000 new jobs and 88,650 new dwelling units (1.5 J/ER)

Generally accepted figure is that residences will have an average 1.7 people who are employed full time (or the equivalent of full time when multiple people employed part time are counted). Scenario J has a massive imbalance of housing and jobs. The 88,650 residences will provide housing for 151,000 employees and their families, while the 526,000 new employees will actually need 309,000 residences. The outcome then is that 158,000 residences will have to be built, somewhere, to accommodate these people. Most likely they’ll be built in Central Valley, and those employees will be commuting. How this fits the City’s claim to be planning for compact development is less than clear.


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